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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that change approaching, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.