The Reasons Middle Eastern Investment Has Not Turned Newcastle into Championship Challengers

Eddie Howe is not given to histrionics or grand public pronouncements. Based on his standards, his press conference after Sunday’s 3-1 defeat counts as a furious outburst. His side scored first but West Ham were ahead by half-time, while also hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to make a three substitutions at the break.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe this indicated of where we were in that moment in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to have that impression. Actually, I don’t think I have during my tenure as manager of the club, so I felt the team required a significant change at the break. This explains why I made what I did.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth all came off at half-time and Newcastle did stabilise somewhat in the latter period, but never appearing like they could get back into the game against a side that had won only one of their previous nine league matches. Given how packed the middle of the table currently is, with a mere three-point gap dividing third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between second and 17th, a sequence of twelve points from ten matches has not placed the Magpies stranded but, similarly, they must not finish the season in 13th.

The Issue of Expectations

The challenge partially is one of perception. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Newcastle possess the wealthiest backers in the world. The assumption at the time the PIF acquired 80% of the team in recent years was that it would bring a transformative effect, similar to Roman Abramovich achieved at Stamford Bridge or the City Group had at Manchester City. The difference is that both of those owners took over prior to the introduction of FFP rules (and the ongoing charges against City relate to whether they violated those regulations after they were in place).

Profit and sustainability restrictions limit the ability of proprietors, however rich, to invest funds on their squads and so in that sense likely might have hindered any Middle Eastern effort to elevate Newcastle to the level of Manchester City. However there is no need for the club's expenditure to have been quite as cautious as it has been; they might have spent more and stayed inside the limit – or simply taken a relatively meagre European fine since their major issue is primarily with the continental than the Premier League regulation.

Infrastructure Investment and PSR Regulations

Additionally, infrastructure spending is exempted from PSR calculations; the easiest method to increase revenue to create more financial flexibility would be to expand or renovate the stadium. Given the location of the home ground, with protected structures on two sides, practically that probably means constructing an completely new venue. There was talk in spring of possibly undertaking the nearby relocation to a local park – opposition from local groups might have been overcome with a promise to create a replacement green space on the current ground location – but there has been no movement on that proposal. There has been significant retrenchment from the PIF on a variety of projects as it shifts focus on domestic affairs; the attitude to Newcastle seems completely in keeping with that strategic shift.

The Alexander Isak Saga

The star striker saga was arose from that conflict. A bolder management might have framed his transfer as necessary to free up capital for additional investment; rather there was a vain effort to retain him. This resulted in Newcastle began the season amidst a feeling of frustration despite the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: one win in their initial six fixtures.

Yet it appeared a turning point was reached. They secured five victories in six matches before the weekend, a streak that included convincing wins of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the Champions League. This explains the display against the Hammers was so surprising. The issue perhaps is that the team's approach is very aggressive, high-energy; a minor decrease in energy can have significant consequences. Perhaps the strain of Premier League, Champions League and cup matches, five games in a fortnight, had taken its toll. The German forward featured in all five matches and appeared particularly fatigued.

Reality of Modern Football

That’s the reality of today's football. Coaches must be ready to rotate. Howe has been unfortunate that Wissa’s injury has left him lacking forward choices but, regardless of how reasonable the reasons, Sunday’s showing was unacceptable –especially after taking the lead at a ground primed to turn on its home team.

Howe will hope it was just a blip, one of those days when all players is off-colour at once, but if Newcastle are to secure the European competition next season, not to mention eventually mount an genuine title challenge, they cannot be as inconsistent as this.

Dana Hawkins
Dana Hawkins

A cybersecurity specialist with over a decade of experience in software patching and vulnerability management.