Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year war in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The frequently changing meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Dana Hawkins
Dana Hawkins

A cybersecurity specialist with over a decade of experience in software patching and vulnerability management.